Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
